Texas Daily Ag Market News Summary

Slaughter Cattle:  So far for Friday in Kansas trading has been slow on light demand. A few live cash trades have moved from 118.00-120.00. However, not enough for a full market trend. In the Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt trading has been limited on light demand. However, not trading in these regions for a market trend. The last fully reported market in Kansas was last week with live cash trades mostly at 118.00. For the prior week in Nebraska live cash trades were from 114.00-119.00 and dressed trades were from 184.00-190.00. In the Western Cornbelt for the previous week saw live cash trades from 116.00-120.00 and dressed trades mostly at 188.00. Thus far for Friday in theTexas Panhandle and Colorado trading has been at a standstill. This week in the Texas Panhandlelive cash trades have moved at 117.00. In Colorado last week a very light test of live cash tradeswere at 119.50.

Update: Trade developed late Friday afternoon at $122.00 per cwt.

Negotiated Sales: Confirmed: 15,493   Week Ago: 9,373   Year Ago: 2,429 
 

Formula Purchases: Net - Dressed 
Head count priced today: 13,800 
Weighted avg weight:       846.00 
Weighted avg net price:   190.61 
 

Alberta Beef Producers Daily Report:  Alberta direct cattle sales Thursday saw light trade develop with dressed sales marked at 260.00 delivered. Sales are steady to 1.00 lower than prices seen on Wednesday. Cash to futures basis levels did strengthen this week. Tentatively cash to futures basis levels are the strongest they have been since January. Buying interest in the cash market was mixed with the bulk of sales going to one buyer. With fed cattle prices moving back to the mid 150's feedlots are likely selling cattle at or below breakeven levels.

Livestock Slaughter under Federal Inspection: 
                             Cattle        Calves   Hogs           Sheep 
Friday (est             116,000      2,000      462,000        6,000 
Week ago (est)      114,000      2,000      455,000        6,000 
Year ago (act)        109,000      2,000      373,000       6,000 
Week to date (est) 591,000    10,000   2,294,000      37,000 
Last Week (est)     571,000    10,000   2,167,000      35,000 
Last Year (act)       567,000    10,000   2,151,000      46,000

Saturday (est           14,000        0              91,000       1,000 
Week ago (est)        44,000        0            168,000       1,000 
Year ago (act)          22,000      1,000         76,000         0 
Week to date (est) 605,000    10,000     2,385,000    38,000 
Last Week (est)      615,000    10,000    2,335,000     36,000 
Last Year* (act)      589,000    10,000    2,227,000     46,000 
2018 YTD            8,975,000  152,000  35,610,000   567,000 
2017 *YTD          8,781,000  149,000  34,659,000   576,000 
Percent change       2.2%         1.8%        2.7%          -1.5% 
 

Boxed Beef: Boxed beef cutout values steady on Choice and lower on Select on light to moderate demand and offerings. Select and Choice rib, chuck, and round cuts mostly steady. Choice loin cuts firm while Select weak. Beef trimmings mostly moderately to sharply higher on moderate demand and light to moderate offerings.

Cutout Values...            Choice        Select 
Current Cutout Values:    212.61         199.91 
Change from prior day:     +0.13           -0.76 
Choice/Select spread:       12.70

Futures Summary: Live cattle futures were mixed on Friday, with nearby April 80 cents higher as it rose 3.85% on the week. Feeder cattle futures were 15 to 70 cents higher, with April 2.99% higher since last Friday. The CME feeder cattle index was up 66 cents on April 12 at $136.42. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were 13 cents higher at $212.61, with Select boxes down 76 cents at $199.91. Estimated FI cattle slaughter is at 605,000 head through Saturday. That is 10,000 below the previous week on lighter Saturday slaughter but up 16,000 head from the same week in 2017. Cash trade picked up after Friday’s close with sales of $120-121 reported, as a few reached $122. Managed money trimmed their cattle net long position to only 27,255 contracts as of Tuesday, down 9,395 from the previous week. 

April Live Cattle Futures: 116.44... +0.69

June Live Cattle Futures: 103.65... -0.05

August Live Cattle Futures: 104.27... Unchanged

April Feeder Cattle Futures: 139.37... +0.50

May Feeder Cattle Futures: 140.37... +0.40

Aug Feeder Cattle Futures: 145.10... +0.15

CME Feeder Cattle Index: 136.42... +0.66

May Lean Hog Futures: 67.39... +0.32

National Grain Market Summary:  Compared to last week, cash bids for wheat and soybeans were higher, corn was mixed and sorghum was lower.   After Tuesday's WASDE report, Brazil's soybean crop estimate was increased to a record high 115.0 mmt (4.23 bb) while Argentina's estimate was cut from 47.0 mmt to 40.0 mmt (1.47 bb).  Ethanol production for week ending April 6th totaled 1.034 million barrels per day, 4,000 less than the week prior. Corn planting may remain slow to start with weather forecasts showing below average temperatures into the weekend for parts of the Corn belt.  USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of U.S. soybeans totaled 55.5 mb and 15.4 mb respectively, a neutral-to-bearish showing for the week with total shipments now down 13% from a year ago. It seems fair to say U.S. wheat exports aren't going to provide any bullish help to wheat prices in 2017-18. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 4.4 mb and 16.0 mb respectively, another bearish combination for the week. Total wheat shipments are now down 10% from a year ago and are making no dent in the heavy load of old-crop winter wheat supplies.  Wheat was higher from 9 1/4 to 53 1/4 cents higher.   Corn was mixed from 1/4 cent lower to 4 1/4 cents higher. Sorghum was 1 to 3 cents lower.  Soybeans were 29 1/2 to 36 1/2 cents higher. 
 

Kansas City Corn: 3.73... -0.02

Kansas City Soybeans: 10.26... -0.01

Kansas City Wheat: 4.86... -0.12

May Corn Futures: 3.8625... -0.0250

May Soybean Futures: 10.5425... -0.0650

May Wheat Futures: 4.7250... -0.0850

Nearby Crude Oil Futures Contract: 67.39... +0.32

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,360.80... -122.25

NASDAQ: 7,106.65... -33.60

U.S. Dollar Index: 89.78... +0.01

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary 
RECEIPTS:       Auctions     Direct    Video/Internet   Total 
This Week        205,400     53,300           18,600      277,300 
Last Week        164,900     37,000                0          201,900 
Last Year          209,400     50,800            5,400       265,600 

Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers sold mostly steady to 5.00 higher.  Some auctions that were called sharply lower last week recovered and were called sharply higher this week due to stability in the market place.  The CME Cattle complex has been a driving force in the roller coaster ride of the last couple of weeks.  Whenever a news item comes out that the market takes as a bullish factor; another tid-bit of news comes about and a bearish tone overtakes the positive news.  Since last Friday's close, the Live Cattle contracts were mostly 1.78 to 2.30 higher, with nearby April being 4.85 higher as convergence with the negotiated trade in the feedlots is coming closer to fruition.  On Wednesday, fed cattle traded in the Southern Plains steady to 1.00 lower at 117.00 to 118.00.  This afternoon in Nebraska, some early live sales there traded at 122.00.  Analysts have been watching very closely the amount of cattle being purchased by packers the past few weeks.  Many producers are very diligent and staying current with their marketings as cattle in the Southern Plains have been gaining very well this winter.  The season has been very easy on the Kansas and TX/OK/NM feedlots, however in the Northern Plains, wet pens increase the cost of gains and decrease the yield on cattle that have had to slog through mud to get to the feedbunks.  The excessive winter moisture has brought about the question of how long will it take all the calf-feds to get through the pipeline this year. Producers have been eager to fill empty pens this week. 

Late last Friday at Fort Pierre Livestock in Fort Pierre, SD five loads of steers weighing 809 lbs sold at 147.25.  On Wednesday at Hub City Livestock in Aberdeen, SD a load of steers weighing 794 lbs sold at 151.25.  Also on Wednesday at Bassett Livestock Auction in Bassett, NE a load of steers weighing 754 lbs sold at 157.00. On Thursday at Mitchell Livestock Auction in Mitchell, SD three loads of 901 lbs steers sold at 135.10.  On Thursday at Ogallala Livestock Auction in Ogallala, NE a load of 611 lb steers sold at 196.50 while two loads of 669 lb steers sold at 185.25.  A part load of replacement heifers in Bassett, NE weighing 778 lbs sold at 157.00.  Only the steer mates to these heifers within that same 50 lb weight group could even match the price received for the females. 

Packers have been accepting a generous margin for this time of year and the extra incentive to harvest 600K plus per week has bolstered bottom-lines for the companies.  Boxed beef has lost around 13.00 since the most recent high 3-4 weeks ago and in the face of adversity since the Easter holiday.  Grills need to be fired up in the Midwest and the Northeast to get the cutout to move up.  With Mother's Day, Memorial Day, Father's Day and Independence Day on the horizon, retailers are getting ready to start their spring and early summer procurement.  Winter Storm Xanto this weekend is expected to bring heavy snow and blizzard conditions from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes and farmers are wondering if spring will ever get here this year.  Named winter storms have now included an "X" name and many across the Northern Plains and New England are not wanting to have a Winter Storm Yvonne; they are tired of being cold and wet. 

Preliminary first quarter slaughter data has indicated heifer slaughter to be over 4 percent above a year ago and over 10 percent higher than the previous 3 year average.  Beef cow slaughter is over 10 percent higher than 2017 and around 19 percent above the previous 3 year average.  With all the drought locations in the United States currently, one could question just how much producers can hold on to the breeding herd with forage prices increasing exponentially this winter and spring. Auction volume this week included 58 percent weighing over 600 lbs and 44 percent heifers.